Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. "If. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. A lot of people think things are. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. I dont think you should take that away from me.. That is a very good thing to have. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . He pissed off a lot of people. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! I believe in a time cycle. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. I just want Trump in. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. This includes personalizing content and advertising. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. I quit voting once out of the union.. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And its never going to come back.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. We have become so divided. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. But thats not the picture I look at. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Youre not getting anybody perfect. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. This claim is basically absurd. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. He didnt vote in 2016 either. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Medicare is becoming a joke. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Blaine County. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. He isnt so sure about Biden. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. This is a high farming community.. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. It was easy. Jim Hoft. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Port Clinton, Ohio. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Here's why. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. On . They need to take care of the older people here. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I hope.. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. I think it worked out without me.. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. Its just not that great, Paul said. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. What happened to our Democratic Party? Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Right now, its horrible. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory.

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