But Trejo, who came to Spring Training to try to change some minds, had a change in latitude because Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the previous game. Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. Biggio knows right field well. Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. With all this hype Im still trying to figure out why the Braves basically gave this guy away?? . Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Throw caution to the wind, even. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He clearly can the man stands 65. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? . Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. It happens. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Chicago Cubs. Heres a bomb to right-center. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. He looked like a pitcher.. I think thats in the ballpark. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Heyward is actually the most accomplished offensive player in the group due to being worth more than 20 runs above average on the bases, but strictly as a hitter, these are the players with similar profiles. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly by Retrosheet. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR . Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. by Handedness. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Perhaps rightfully so. If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. Heres a powerful triple to center. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. FanGraphs Shirts. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. Gift a Membership. Yeah, if continued this would make him shiftable. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. Heywards 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. Its no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. Jason Heyward Positions: Rightfielder, Centerfielder and Leftfielder Bats: Left Throws: Left 6-5 , 240lb (196cm, 108kg) Born: August 9, 1989 (Age: 33-206d) in Ridgewood, NJ us More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 1x All-Star 2016 World Series 5x Gold Glove Wilson Overall Def Player 22 22 22 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. His average ranking is 7.5. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Hows it going to go? The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. It really had good numbers on the computer. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. Heyward will get paid. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . FanGraphs Membership. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, But the power was largely absent. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. News; Wikipedia: . Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. by Retrosheet. You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. Cavan Biggio will play half his games in the outfield. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. How much will he be worth? The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Look at Jason Heyward. Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. 12 years and 0 . Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order.

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